Grant Program Results
2026 Season
Organizations in their second-plus year of individual campaigns held onto roughly 7–9% more donors than comparable non-participating organizations — the one result that passed every statistical stress test we ran. We are equally clear about what we don't claim: this season's public-media surge was a nationwide crisis response, not a program effect, and grouped (Tier 2) campaigns showed no measurable lift in year one.
The season in four numbers
How participants compared
Tier 1 = individual campaigns (22 orgs). Tier 2 = grouped category campaigns (143 orgs). Both are measured against organizations that did not participate, over the same season.
Congress ended all federal public-media funding in July 2025 and Alaska's stations lost ~$15M/year. Donors rallied statewide — stations that never participated in this program grew +30.3%, more than the stations we advertised for (+20%). That surge belongs to the crisis, not the campaigns, so we report every result both ways. Typical-organization (median) figures tell the same story; full tables are available on request.
Did the ads cause it?
Comparing participants to non-participants over the same window is called a difference-in-differences estimate — the fairest question we can ask of this data: how did participants do relative to what we'd expect, given how everyone else moved?
Each dot is our best estimate of the program's effect for that group — how much participants beat (or trailed) comparable non-participating organizations. The line through each dot is the range of doubt: the values the true effect could plausibly be, given how few organizations we have. If the line crosses zero, we can't rule out "no effect." Solid dot = the result survives; hollow dot = inconclusive. Estimates weight every organization equally, so one giant org can't dominate.
Note on the 2025 row: this reads differently than last season's preliminary report, which compared participants against platform-wide totals. Those totals were unusually low because PCG's change of software platforms had kept 100+ nonprofits from signing up that year — not because giving had fallen. Measured against organizations that were on the platform in both seasons, the 2025 program shows no detectable effect. The same method is applied to every season here.
What held up — and what we're not claiming
The finding that passed every test
Returning Tier 1 organizations held onto donors. The 11 organizations in their second-plus year beat comparable non-participants on donor counts by +9.5% — and still by +6.9% with public media set aside. Eight of the 11 beat the baseline: broad, not one lucky org.
Donor retention is exactly what these campaigns are designed for — re-engaging each organization's own past donors. With 11 organizations it's promising evidence rather than proof, and year two looks better than year one in both seasons we can measure.
What we're not claiming
- The public-media surge. Sector-wide crisis giving, visible in every group including non-participants. Not program impact.
- Tier 1's raw dollar lead. It doesn't survive removing Alaska Public Media, so we don't headline it.
- Tier 2 lift. Grouped category campaigns tracked non-participants almost exactly — no measurable effect in their first year, across 125 organizations.
- First-year magic. First-time participants showed little in 2025 and again in 2026. The payoff appears in year two.
Outside events that moved the numbers
Before crediting (or blaming) the program, we checked every external force that could move whole sectors — because if an outside event lifts a sector that happens to sit in one tier, the program looks better or worse than it is.
The big one: public media and the CPB shutdown
Congress voted on July 17, 2025 to claw back all federal public-media funding — roughly $1B nationally, about $15M/year to Alaska's 27 stations. A statewide emergency campaign (the Alaska Community Foundation's "Voices Across Alaska" fund) raised $3.5M+ by September, and the story saturated Alaska news through the PCG season. Donors responded everywhere:
Everything else we checked
Food banks & the SNAP crisis — checked, no distortion
The October–November 2025 federal shutdown delayed SNAP benefits; Alaska declared a disaster and food banks saw record demand and record giving — in November–December, before the PCG window. In PCG data, food-security organizations were only mildly resilient (Tier 2 food category −3.3%; the two Tier 1 food banks −2.4% and −4.7%), and never-participating pantries scattered in both directions. The crisis wave was spent before the season; no correction needed.
Domestic-violence funding crisis — checked, worked against the program if anything
Federal VOCA victim-services funding fell ~40% and Alaska DV nonprofits publicly feared closures. No PCG donor surge followed: never-participating DV organizations were flat-to-slightly-up, while the two Tier 1 DV organizations (AWAIC, STAR) fell 16.5% and 12.3%. This sector pulled Tier 1's numbers down, not up.
Politically sensitive organizations — flagged and kept separate
Planned Parenthood (Tier 1) has no 2025 baseline and is excluded from every estimate; its return at −34% vs 2024 (against a platform-wide −5.2% over the same two years) reflects national giving cycles in that sector, not the campaign. Others moved in both directions — ACLU of Alaska dollars +7.5% but donors −12%; Identity −38%; pregnancy resource centers −17% to −35%; Alaska Black Caucus +29.6% — volatile, but no one-directional bias to correct.
The 2025 sign-up shortfall — the quiet distortion
When PCG changed software platforms before the 2025 season, 100+ nonprofits missed the sign-up deadline and received no pledges that year. Because those organizations came back in 2026, most of this season's apparent "growth" is simply their return ($266,700 from 116 joining or returning organizations: Planned Parenthood $50,875; 18 Tier 2 organizations totaling $47,975, led by The Door at $14,075; 97 non-participants, $167,850). The 34 organizations that left took just $41,048. Both-seasons-only math removes most of this distortion; a small inflation of 2025 baselines (redirected gifts) remains and affects all groups roughly equally.
How we measured, and the fine print
- Like-for-like comparisons. Every year-over-year figure counts only organizations on the platform in both seasons, so the 2025 sign-up shortfall (PCG changed software platforms and 100+ organizations missed the deadline) doesn't distort results. Organizations that joined or returned are counted separately.
- A real comparison group. Participant results are judged against organizations that never participated in any season — how did participants do relative to what we'd expect, given how everyone else moved?
- Statistical stress tests. Every claim was tested with confidence ranges, with public media excluded, with the largest organization removed, and across two seasons. Only the returning-Tier 1 donor-retention finding passed all of them.
- Data vintage. 2026 figures are from the April 1 pledge snapshot; baselines are final post-payout files. Snapshot pledges historically settle ~4% lower once cancellations clear, so 2026 levels may read slightly high — group comparisons are unaffected. Figures here use final-vintage baselines and therefore will not match earlier seasons' preliminary reports. We'll re-verify against the final 2026 file after the October payout.
Sources for the outside events
- 2025 PFD $1,000 — lowest in five years, smallest ever inflation-adjusted: Alaska DOR announcement, Alaska Public Media, Alaska Beacon
- Prior PFDs — 2024 $1,702 (incl. energy relief): Alaska Public Media; 2023 $1,312: Alaska Beacon
- CPB rescission & Alaska impact: Anchorage Daily News, Alaska Beacon
- Emergency public-media fundraising: Voices Across Alaska Fund (ACF), $3.5M raised (Alaska's News Source), relief distributions (ADN)
- Shutdown / SNAP and Alaska food banks: Alaska disaster declaration (Beacon), Fairbanks food banks (APM), FBA holiday demand (APM), record food-bank fundraising (Food Bank News)
- VOCA / DV funding: ADN — Alaska DV nonprofits fear closures
- 2026 charitable-deduction changes: Taft — Charitable Giving After the OBBBA, KLR — 2026 planning tips
Tier 1 organizations
All 21 Tier 1 organizations with both seasons of data — individual campaigns, each serving its own donor list. Sort any column, search, and hover a row for both measures at once.
Badges: Repeat = also participated in 2024 or 2025 · New = first year · Public media = sector affected by the CPB funding crisis. Planned Parenthood (the 22nd Tier 1 organization) received no pledges in 2025, the year PCG changed software platforms, so it has no baseline for year-over-year math; it returned at $50,875 / 652 donors and is reported separately throughout.
KUAC's "decline" isn't what it looks like
KUAC fell −26% — but only because it spiked +73% in 2025, a year before the statewide public-media surge. Its 2026 total is still +27% above 2024. Read it as a return to earth, not donor loss.
AWAIC is the decline we're following up on
The second-largest Tier 1 organization shed 348 donors in its first program year while comparable domestic-violence organizations outside the program held steady. It looks org-specific rather than sector-driven; we'll work with AWAIC ahead of next season to understand what happened.
Tier 2 organizations
All 125 Tier 2 organizations with both seasons of data — grouped campaigns with category-level creative. Search matches names and categories (try "food" or "animal").
18 more Tier 2 organizations joined or returned this season (no 2025 baseline)
These organizations were not on the platform in 2025 (most missed the sign-up deadline the year PCG changed software platforms), so year-over-year change can't be computed. Together they raised $47,975 from 699 donors in 2026: